The Next Big Mideast Showdown: Netanyahu vs. Biden - Israel News - Haaretz.com
In a few weeks’ time, U.S. President Joe Biden will find out that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu isn’t ignoring U.S. advice, defying U.S. requests or bragging that “he stood up to America” because he has an alternative and better war policy and is merely exercising Israel’s decision-making sovereignty.
The Biden administration will discover instead that Netanyahu is deliberately confronting them, so he can blame the American president for “holding him back” and denying Israel the opportunity to eradicate Hamas.
He is doing so for purely political reasons, as part of his fabricated narrative that ignores his culpability and responsibility for October 7, and instead focuses on the war and how he was on the precipice of a major victory until Biden prevented him from completing the mission.
After 58 days of Israel’s war with Hamas, the United States is finally at the point where the contradictions of policies are surfacing and stated goals are becoming evidently incompatible.
U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris addressing the ongoing Israel-Hamas war, during a press conference in Dubai on Saturday.Credit: Amr Alfiky/Reuters
They are incompatible with the management of the war: the U.S.’ primary objective is to prevent escalation, while Israel is flirting with escalation in the West Bank and Lebanon. They are incompatible in that destroying Hamas necessitates a major, second ground operation that will inevitably result in heavy civilian casualties. Most of all, they are incompatible in regard to the question of “what’s next” in Gaza – meaning who will govern the Gaza Strip, and does Israel intend to establish a military presence there without owning the pathologies of actually governing a place like Gaza?
On Saturday, speaking in Dubai, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris articulated the most cogent vision yet that the United States has for Gaza’s future: no changes to Gazan territory and borders; no forcible displacement of Palestinians; no Israeli reoccupation of the Strip; no besiegement of Palestinians in Gaza; no use of Gaza as a platform for terrorism; strengthening the Palestinian Authority so in due time it can extend its governance to Gaza and assume security responsibility.
“Frankly,” Harris said, “the scale of civilian suffering, and the images and videos coming from Gaza, are devastating. … We want to see a unified Gaza and West Bank under the Palestinian Authority.”
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Her comments on civilian suffering were echoed by Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, who said in California on Saturday that “the center of gravity is the civilian population, and if you drive them into the arms of the enemy, you replace a tactical victory with a strategic defeat.”
Taken for granted
None of this is acceptable to Netanyahu, who pretends not to understand English when it’s politically inconvenient. In fact, in the last three days alone, he has stated that Israel intends to create a “buffer zone” inside Gaza; that Israel will continue the military operation in southern Gaza until Hamas is “toppled”; that the PA will have no governing responsibilities in Gaza – the subtext being that the PA is in fact Hamas. He then significantly cut the humanitarian aid allowed into Gaza, despite a prior pledge he made to U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
This raises the question of whether Biden’s immediate, visceral and unmitigated support for Israel has been too robust and placed a policy burden on the Americans, as David Rothkopf wrote in The Daily Beast last week.
In Israel, Biden’s unwavering material, political and emotional support was hugely appreciated, but in the United States and elsewhere it was gradually seen as prohibitively unbalanced in a way that could impact America’s foreign policy options.
From the outset, the perception was that Biden gave Israel carte blanche to retaliate against the horrors of Hamas’ attack on October 7. He dispatched two aircraft carrier strike groups, the 26th Marine Expeditionary force, the USS Florida nuclear submarine and committed to a hefty $14.3 billion military aid package (that cleared the House of Representatives but not as of yet the Senate). He then visited Israel 10 days after the war began and pledged further support.
Yet however he conditioned this support, sending Secretary of State Blinken, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and he himself expressing caveats and requests from Israel to shape its war management, the perception in the United States, among some NATO allies and throughout the Arab world was that his support was lopsided and the Americans were too tolerant of Israel’s massive bombardment of Gaza and the civilian death toll it exacted.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant speaking to reporters in Tel Aviv last week.Credit: Saul Loeb/Pool Photo via AP
Netanyahu being Netanyahu, he took Biden’s political generosity and material largesse for granted, repeatedly dismissing American ideas and warnings. That the United States hasn’t yet reciprocated, called Netanyahu out or pressured him further strengthens the impression of one-sidedness.
Paradoxically, while this approach arguably limited America’s levers of pressure until now, Biden’s approach actually provides broader influence in the coming weeks. The feeling that the United States isn’t really affecting Israeli policy can change swiftly once Biden realizes what Netanyahu is doing – and he is realizing that.
Biden supports Israel, not Netanyahu. Unlike Mr. Netanyahu, Biden doesn’t think “Israel” and “Netanyahu” are the same, inseparable, synonymous entity. He genuinely loves Israel, but as Rothkopf astutely observed, he loves the Israel he once know – the one that shared values with the United States, not the mutation that Israel has become under Netanyahu and his messianic, right-wing, theofascist governing coalition partners.
Time to draw the distinction
Precisely because his pro-Israel bona fides are solid and unassailable, Biden can now draw a sharper distinction between the State of Israel and Netanyahu, and present America’s vision and policy in a clear way. His unwavering support grants him the political latitude of modifying policy and confronting Netanyahu if he concludes – as he is increasingly doing – that the Israeli premier is not aligned with U.S. interests and is seeking a showdown for expedient political needs.
The policy adjustments and initiatives that Biden can enunciate are not limited to the military-operational realm, but to the postwar arrangements and a broader political process down the road.
U.S. President Joe Biden speaking in the Oval Office of the White House last week.Credit: Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP
Such a U.S. policy regarding the “day after” was presented in broad brushstrokes by both Biden and Blinken in recent weeks more than once (until VP Harris sketched it out at the weekend). Netanyahu dismissed and derided it all, offering no alternative policy whatsoever. This should have been America’s clue.
All criticism and policy ideas notwithstanding, Biden’s leadership and management of the Gaza (and Ukraine) crisis has thus far been effective and astute, despite mounting evidence that there may be a political price to pay domestically as he enters an election year. Biden did not constrict his options. Instead, he created wide maneuvering room, which he can now use.
Clearly, Biden shares the goal of toppling Hamas, and clearly he does not want any unnecessary and open friction with Israel. But as the experience and history of his predecessors shows, when an American president confronts an ally, Israel included, and explains it in terms of defending U.S. interests, the American public supports him. Biden will not lose one vote or one dollar in campaign contributions if he calls Netanyahu out.